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Definition rational choice theory Video
Rational Choice Theory - 60 Second Adventures in Economics (6/6)Joining the Herd: Sheeple, or Rational Actors? This inverse relationship between action and supporting evidence demands explanation.
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Consider the following scenario: You are traveling to a conference. With your phone out of power, you lose track of time, and the best you can remember is definition rational choice theory the event is slated to begin at am. However, as you approach, you find that a group of people are already entering the location at am. With the mass of people behaving counter to what you would have done based on your information, you conclude that you are the one who must have been mistaken and decide to enter at as well.
You are surprised to find out that the event actually does begin atand that it was the rest of the crowd that was mistaken. What has happened here?
definition rational choice theory The idea is simple. Not only do we obtain information from our own private sources, but we also observe the actions of others and deduce what information they must have a classroom which led them to their behavior. Using basic probability theorywhich we cover in my CIDM courseit turns out that despite your personal belief of a start time, which may in fact be correct, observing more and more people entering at begins to provide overwhelming evidence that is in fact the correct start time, and the rational choice is to then follow suit. This is what we call herd behavior: A situation in which the information derived from the actions of others becomes disproportionally more reliable than your own private information, even though the latter is correct.
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But a subtle and important question remains: Even if we assume that people are more often than not correct in their beliefs, so that the vast here of people are correctly informed of the start time, how is it possible to get a large crowd of people entering at ?
That is, defonition do herds begin? In the following section, I summarize the arguments of Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, and Welchand derive the actual probability of a herd forming. Herd Immunity?
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Consider a simple scenario: A group of individuals arrive at the location of the conference one at a time. By working backwards, we will see that a herd can form with the arrival of the third individual. That is, using our definition of herd behavior, if the third individual observes the first two individuals entering the building atthen even if she correctly believes that the start time isit is mathematically justified for her to ignore her own information and assume to be the correct start time.
We will ignore this slightly more complex calculation and simply concentrate on the probability of the third individual observing the first two entering at Now the second individual arrives.]
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