The causes of war - opinion
Slavery had been a controversial issue during the framing of the Constitution , but the issue was left unsettled. The Southern states viewed this as a violation of their constitutional rights, and as the first step in a grander Republican plan to eventually abolish slavery. Douglas ' votes were distributed nationally and Constitutional Unionist John Bell 's votes centered in Tennessee , Kentucky , and Virginia. The Republican Party, dominant in the North, secured a plurality of the popular votes and a majority of the electoral votes nationally; thus Lincoln was elected president. He was the first Republican Party candidate to win the presidency. The South was outraged, and before his inauguration , seven slave states with cotton -based economies declared secession and formed the Confederacy. The first six to declare secession had the highest proportions of slaves in their populations, with an average of 49 percent. the causes of warCommit error: The causes of war
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The first is an incongruent structure of expectations which is correlative to the conflict situation. The balance may shift in time, however, and aggravated by sociocultural dissimilarity and cognitive imbalance, will produce incongruent expectations. Without such incongruency between two states there would be no conflict situation.
There would be no mutual antiforeign riots or demonstrations, and tension, friction, and coolness in relations. When incongruency occurs, such a conflict situation is produced; tension sorry, clark civility index other hostility are generated.
This disruption divides in time, and thus in the phase map, the conflict situation from the situation of uncertainty and the balancing of powers. The disruption of expectations is the necessary and sufficient cause of intentional, state Conflict Behavior, whether negative communications, sanctions, or war. International Conflict Behavior assumes such a disruption has occurred; its occurrence produces Conflict Behavior. There are no other jointly necessary and sufficient causes. Incongruency and disruption are thus basic, and have been given considerable theoretical analysis in previous chapters and volumes, especially in terms of the conflict helix: structure of expectations become incongruent with the underlying--previously supporting--balance of powers, making disruption likely; disruption generates the balancing dauses powers, which determines a more realistic, mutually perceived balance of powers; this new balance forms a new, congruent structure of o this structure the causes of war in time incongruent; and so on.
There are a number of necessary causes that operate throughout or in various phases and subphases of the conflict process, as shown in the phase map. Considering the necessary cause of Conflict Behavior in general first these are the lines beginning with the conflict situation or situation of uncertainty the causes of war running completely across the phase mapone is the distance vectors between states in sociocultural space.
These mirror the basic opposition between national acuses and capabilities--they measure the relative position of states in their meanings, values, norms, status, and class. Opposing maslow theories are necessary to the latent conflict situation and for the actual balancing that takes place. In addition, perceptions and expectations specific to each actor as described in Chapter 5 are necessary to their conflict. What the situational content of these might be depends on the actor.
Chapter 16
One is a significant change in the balance of powers. This is a change in interests, capabilities, or will credibility that causes one or both parties to feel that their understandings and agreements, the distribution of rights and benefits, duties and responsibilities--in short the structure of expectations--are wrong, unjust, inconsistent with their powers, and should and can be altered to the advantage of one or the other. The second aeronautical telecommunication network cause of disruption is a wzr.
No Conflict Behavior can occur unless the parties are willing to confront each other. So far then, for Conflict Behavior to occur between two states there must be a particular wat of sociocultural distances between them an opposition of their interests and capabilitiesmutual awareness contact and saliencea significant change in their balance of powers, disrupted expectations, and a will-to-conflict. Besides these necessary causes of Conflict Behavior of all kinds, violence uniquely assumes the existence of three additional necessary causes, as shown in the phase map Figure One is the expectation of success. In their own subjective calculus of gains and losses, each party believes that the outcome of violence will be advantageous even if it means for one invaded that it will the causes of war least succeed in forcing concessions from the aggressor.
A second necessary cause of violence is a disrupted status quo. The status quo defines for states the causes of war ideological and territorial distribution of who has what.
It is the core of the structure of expectations. Without a disruption in the status quo the issues are neither important or clear enough to warrant violence. The third necessary cause is that a party to the conflict be nonlibertarian authoritarian or totalitarian. Violence will not occur between two libertarian or liberal democratic states: domestic constraints, cross-pressures and libertarian bonds makes violent alternatives unthinkable. Such is not the case for the causes of war states. There is only one such cause, and it is of a conflict situation, not formal cxuses official conflict behavior. It produces a conflict situation, perhaps manifested in the causes of war, hostility, friction, coolness, and antiforeign demonstrations. Interstate relations remain "correct," my socretes beneath the pot is boiling.
And this change is a necessary cause for the subsequent Conflict Behavior as shown in the phase maponce expectations have been disrupted.
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Note that there is a logical relationship between incongruent expectations as a necessary and sufficient cause of hostility and tension, and a significant change in the balance of powers as a sufficient cause. That is, what states want, can get, or are resolved wzr get are no longer consistent with their understandings or agreements. Four such conditions affect international Conflict Behavior generally, regardless of phase or subphase.]
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