Stop the panic and end the total isolation - something is
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In the flu pandemic at the end of World War One, the average age of death was twenty-eight 1. Which is older than the average life expectancy in parts of the UK. In Italy, in the early stages of the pandemic, the CFR for those under twenty-nine was zero per cent. Rising to twenty per cent in those over eighty 3. It always falls as more and more people are tested.
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I am not getting into an unwinnable argument as to the value of human life at different ages. I am simply making the point that COVID19 is, for reasons not well established, vastly more serious in the elderly population. This is very different from previous epidemics.
COVID19 also targets those with significant lsolation medical conditions. In essence, we know that COVID19 is a disease that is both significant and deadly in the elderly population. Particularly the elderly population with underlying medical conditions. The risk appears to be lower than for influenza. Here children, and those under forty, the risk is almost non-existent.
Therefore, it is relatively straightforward to identify pretty accurately those who we need to help protect from COVID19, and those who we do not. On this basis I am going to recommend that the best way to protect the vulnerable elderly is to build up immunity in the younger population, in order to stop the spread throughout the whole community. If eighty per cent of the population under seventy were to get infected, this would stop transmission in its tracks, and COVID19 would be gone. However, what we are doing currently is to lockdown ever more tightly to stop the spread. Whether or not this is working is unclear.
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However, let us assume that it is doing so. Then, I would argue that we are doing precisely the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time. It is true that in recent weeks, positive infection tests have risen rapidly. However, deaths have not nor have hospital admissions. In the month of August which is as far as the Office for National Statistics figures goin the under thirty age group, there was one death 5.
Of course, if more and more people get infected, and more elderly vulnerable people get infected, there learn more here eventually be an increase in deaths. Therefore, what we need to do right now — before winter comes — is to encourage everyone who is fit and well and under the age of seventy slightly arbitrary figure to take the masks off, get together and spread this stop the panic and end the total isolation far and wide. How long would it take to infect the rest of the population?
When All Adults Are Eligible for the Vaccine in Each State
Using widely accepted figures. If the R number is three average number of people an infected person will go on to infectand the serial interval is four days time from becoming infected to infecting others 6then we can do a little thought experiment. We start with the number of people currently infected. Today, Sept 11th there were 3, positive tests in the UK. This assumes we have detected every single infected person in the UK, which is not possible, so my source, figure is a major underestimate of the true starting point.
If the R number is three, and the serial interval is four, we would treble the number of cases every four days. We start on day one with 24, infective people. Done in a month. As more and more people get infected, there are less people left to infect so the R number drops. We also know that a number of people have already been infected.]
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